I am, like many beauty-involved American women, skincare-obsessed. Every morning, I dutifully apply antioxidants and sunscreen; every night, it’s retinol or an exfoliating lotion. Intermixed with those are all manner of serums and creams to erase the errant sunspot or patch of redness. I am contemplating undereye filler.The goal, of course, is flawless skin, a desire I know had been bred into me via ambient exposure to high volumes of beauty culture. I know skin perfection is nothing more than wishful thinking; I suppose the more sensible aim is to simply need less makeup. But I really, really love the chase—don’t so many of us?I am a skincare junkie, but I am also a trend forecaster. My job is to spot “weak signals” in the culture and interpret how they represent a shift toward an as-yet-to-be-defined future. At their core, trend forecasters tend to use intuition and instinct to sense newness, coupled with an intimate understanding of different sectors or product categories. I own a trend consultancy that specializes in helping brands—many of them in the beauty category—translate cultural change into future-facing strategies. And I sense that beauty culture is at an inflection point; a sign of a larger cultural shift. I call it New Essentialism.A Quiet Shift in the LandscapeFirst, let’s paint a picture of the beauty culture today. Consumers are eager to adopt a litany of harsh retinols, potent exfoliants, abrasive scrubs, invasive treatments like microneedling, and quick fixes like neurotoxins and fillers. They’ve bought into brands selling them on elaborate regimens, cocktailing ingredients like quasi-chemists.